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Flatten the Curve. #18. The current cold war between China and America explained. And how China was behind the 2008 Wall Street financial Crash. World War 3 is coming.
China, the USA, and the Afghanistan war are linked. And in order to get here, we will start there. 9-11 happened. Most of the planet mistakenly understood terrorists had struck a blow against Freedom and Capitalism and Democracy. It was time to invade Afghanistan. Yet all of the terrorists were linked to Saudi Arabia and not Afghanistan, that didn't make sense either. Yet they invaded to find Bin Laden, an ex CIA asset against the Soviet Union and it's subjugation of Afghanistan. The land in the middle of nowhere in relation to North America and the West. It was barren. A backwater without any strategic importance or natural resources. Or was there? The survey for rare earth elements was only made possible by the 2001 U.S. invasion, with work beginning in 2004. Mirzad says the Russians had already done significant surveying work during their military occupation of the country in the 1980s. Mirzad also toes the line for U.S. corporations, arguing, “The Afghan government should not touch the mining business. We have to give enough information to potential investors.” Rare Earth Elements. The elements that make the information age possible. People could understand the First Gulf War and the Geopolitical importance of oil. That was easy, but it still didn't sound morally just to have a war for oil. It was too imperialist and so they fell in line and supported a war for Kuwaiti freedom instead, despite the obvious and public manipulation at the UN by Nayirah. This is some of her testimony to the Human Rights Council. While I was there, I saw the Iraqi soldiers come into the hospital with guns. They took the babies out of the incubators, took the incubators and left the children to die on the cold floor. It was horrifying. I could not help but think of my nephew who was born premature and might have died that day as well. After I left the hospital, some of my friends and I distributed flyers condemning the Iraqi invasion until we were warned we might be killed if the Iraqis saw us. The Iraqis have destroyed everything in Kuwait. They stripped the supermarkets of food, the pharmacies of medicine, the factories of medical supplies, ransacked their houses and tortured neighbors and friends. There was only one problem. She was the daughter of Saud Al-Sabah, the Kuwaiti ambassador to the United States. Furthermore, it was revealed that her testimony was organized as part of the Citizens for a Free Kuwait public relations campaign, which was run by the American public relations firm Hill & Knowlton for the Kuwaiti government (fun fact, Hill & Knowlton also have extensive ties with Bill Gates). So the public was aghast at her testimony and supported the war against the mainly Soviet backed, but also American supported and Soviet backed Saddam Hussein, in his war against Iran, after the Iranians refused to Ally with American interests after the Islamic Revolution. But that was oil, this was Rare Earth Elements. There was a reason the war was called, Operation Enduring Freedom. This natural resource was far more important in the long run. You couldn't have a security surveillance apparatus without it. And what was supposed to be a war on terror was in actuality a territorial occupation for resources. Sleeping Dragon China is next, and where there's smoke, there's fire. Let's go point form for clarity. • China entered the rare earth market in the mid-1980s, at a time when the US was the major producer. But China soon caught up and became the production leader for rare earths. Its heavily state-supported strategy was aimed at dominating the global rare earth industry. • 1989 Beijing’s Tiananmen Square spring. The U.S. government suspends military sales to Beijing and freezes relations. • 1997. Clinton secures the release of Wei and Tiananmen Square protester Wang Dan. Beijing deports both dissidents to the United States. (If you don't understand these two were CIA assets working in China, you need to accept that not everything will be published. America wouldn't care about two political activists, but why would care about two intelligence operatives). • March 1996. Taiwan’s First Free Presidential Vote. • May 1999. America "accidently" bombs the Belgrade Chinese Embassy. • 2002 Price competitiveness was hard for the USA to achieve due to low to non-existent Chinese environmental standards; as a result, the US finally stopped its rare earth production. • October 2000. U.S. President Bill Clinton signs the U.S.-China Relations Act. China's take over of the market share in rare earth elements starts to increase. • October 2001. Afghanistan war Enduring Freedom started to secure rare earth elements (Haven't you ever wondered how they could mobilize and invade so quickly? The military was already prepared). • 2005. China establishes a monopoly on global production by keeping mineral prices low and then panics markets by introducing export quotas to raise prices by limiting supply. • Rare Earth Elements. Prices go into the stratosphere (for example, dysprosium prices do a bitcoin, rocketing from $118/kg to $2,262/kg between 2008 and 2011). • In a September 2005. Deputy Secretary of State Robert B. Zoellick initiates a strategic dialogue with China. This was presented as dialog to acknowledge China's emergence as a Superpower (which China probably insisted on), but it was about rare earth elements market price. • October 2006. China allows North Korea to conduct its first nuclear test, China serves as a mediator to bring Pyongyang back to the negotiating table with the USA. • September 2006. American housing prices start to fall. (At some point after this, secret negotiations must have become increasingly hostile). • March 2007. China Increases Military Spending. U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney says China’s military buildup is “not consistent” with the country’s stated goal of a “peaceful rise.” • Mid-2005 and mid-2006. China bought between $100b and $250 billion of US housing debt between mid-2005 and mid-2006. This debt was bought using the same financial instruments that caused the financial collapse. • 2006. Housing prices started to fall for the first time in decades. • Mid-2006 and mid-2007. China likely added another $390b to its reserves. "At the same time, if China stopped buying -- especially now, when the private market is clogged up -- US financial markets would really seize up." Council on Foreign Relations-2007 August • February 27, 2007. Stock markets in China and the U.S. fell by the most since 2003. Investors leave the money market and flock to Government backed Treasury Bills. I've never seen it like this before,'' said Jim Galluzzo, who began trading short-maturity Treasuries 20 years ago and now trades bills at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut.Bills right now are trading like dot-coms.'' We had clients asking to be pulled out of money market funds and wanting to get into Treasuries,'' said Henley Smith, fixed-income manager in New York at Castleton Partners, which oversees about $150 million in bonds.People are buying T-bills because you know exactly what's in it.'' • February 13, 2008. The Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 was enacted, which included a tax rebate. The total cost of this bill was projected at $152 billion for 2008. A December 2009 study found that only about one-third of the tax rebate was spent, providing only a modest amount of stimulus. • September 2008. China Becomes Largest U.S. Foreign Creditor at 600 billion dollars. • 2010. China’s market power peaked in when it reached a market share of around 97% of all rare earth mineral production. Outside of China, there were almost no other producers left. Outside of China, the US is the second largest consumer of rare earths in the world behind Japan. About 60% of US rare earth imports are used as catalysts for petroleum refining, making it the country’s major consumer of rare earths. The US military also depends on rare earths. Many of the most advanced US weapon systems, including smart bombs, unmanned drones, cruise missiles, laser targeting, radar systems and the Joint Strike Fighter programme rely on rare earths. Against this background, the US Department of Defense (DoD) stated that “reliable access to the necessary material is a bedrock requirement for DOD” • 2010. A trade dispute arose when the Chinese government reduced its export quotas by 40% in 2010, sending the rare earths prices in the markets outside China soaring. The government argued that the quotas were necessary to protect the environment. • August 2010. China Becomes World’s Second-Largest Economy. • November 2011. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton outlines a U.S. “pivot” to Asia. Clinton’s call for “increased investment—diplomatic, economic, strategic, and otherwise—in the Asia-Pacific region” is seen as a move to counter China’s growing clout. • December 2011. U.S. President Barack Obama announces the United States and eight other nations have reached an agreement on the Trans-Pacific Partnership later announces plans to deploy 2,500 marines in Australia, prompting criticism from Beijing. • November 2012. China’s New Leadership. Xi Jinping replaces Hu Jintao as president, Communist Party general secretary, and chairman of the Central Military Commission. Xi delivers a series of speeches on the “rejuvenation” of China. • June 2013. U.S. President Barack Obama hosts Chinese President Xi Jinping for a “shirt-sleeves summit” • May 19, 2014. A U.S. court indicts five Chinese hackers, allegedly with ties to China’s People’s Liberation Army, on charges of stealing trade technology from U.S. companies. • November 12, 2014. Joint Climate Announcement. Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping issue a joint statement on climate change, pledging to reduce carbon emissions. (which very conveniently allows the quotas to fall and save pride for Xi). • 2015. China drops the export quotas because in 2014, the WTO ruled against China. • May 30, 2015 U.S. Warns China Over South China Sea. (China is trying to expand it's buffer zone to build a defense for the coming war). • January 2016. The government to abolish the one-child policy, now allowing all families to have two children. • February 9, 2017. Trump Affirms One China Policy After Raising Doubts. • April 6 – 7, 2017. Trump Hosts Xi at Mar-a-Lago. Beijing and Washington to expand trade of products and services like beef, poultry, and electronic payments, though the countries do not address more contentious trade issues including aluminum, car parts, and steel. • November 2017. President Xi meets with President Trump in another high profile summit. • March 22, 2018. Trump Tariffs Target China. The White House alleges Chinese theft of U.S. technology and intellectual property. Coming on the heels of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, the measures target goods including clothing, shoes, and electronics and restrict some Chinese investment in the United States. • July 6, 2018 U.S.-China Trade War Escalates. • September 2018. Modifications led to the exclusion of rare earths from the final list of products and they consequently were not subject to import tariffs imposed by the US government in September 2018. • October 4, 2018. Pence Speech Signals Hard-Line Approach. He condemns what he calls growing Chinese military aggression, especially in the South China Sea, criticizes increased censorship and religious persecution by the Chinese government, and accuses China of stealing American intellectual property and interfering in U.S. elections. • December 1, 2018. Canada Arrests Huawei Executive. • March 6, 2019. Huawei Sues the United States. • March 27 2019. India and the US signed an agreement to "strengthen bilateral security and civil nuclear cooperation" including the construction of six American nuclear reactors in India • May 10, 2019. Trade War Intensifies. • August 5, 2019. U.S. Labels China a Currency Manipulator. • November 27, 2019. Trump Signs Bill Supporting Hong Kong Protesters. Chinese officials condemn the move, impose sanctions on several U.S.-based organizations, and suspend U.S. warship visits to Hong Kong. • January 15, 2020. ‘Phase One’ Trade Deal Signed. But the agreement maintains most tariffs and does not mention the Chinese government’s extensive subsidies. Days before the signing, the United States dropped its designation of China as a currency manipulator. • January 31, 2020. Tensions Soar Amid Coronavirus Pandemic. • March 18, 2020. China Expels American Journalists. The Chinese government announces it will expel at least thirteen journalists from three U.S. newspapers—the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Washington Post—whose press credentials are set to expire in 2020. Beijing also demands that those outlets, as well as TIME and Voice of America, share information with the government about their operations in China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry says the moves are in response to the U.S. government’s decision earlier in the year to limit the number of Chinese journalists from five state-run media outlets in the United States to 100, down from 160, and designate those outlets as foreign missions. And here we are. You may have noticed the Rare Earth Elements and the inclusion of Environmental Standards. Yes these are key to understanding the Geopolitical reality and importance of these events. There's a reason the one child policy stopped. Troop additions. I believe our current political reality started at Tiananmen square. The protests were an American sponsored attempt at regime change after the failure to convince them to leave totalitarian communism and join a greater political framework. Do I have proof? Yes. China, as far as I'm concerned, was responsible for the 2008 economic crisis. The Rare Earth Elements were an attempt to weaken the States and strengthen themselves simultaneously. This stranglehold either forced America to trade with China, or the trade was an American Trojan horse to eventually collapse their economy and cause a revolution after Tiananmen Square failed. Does my second proposal sound far fetched? Didn't the economy just shut down in response to the epidemic? Aren't both sides blaming the other? At this POINT, the epidemic seems to be overstated doesn’t it? Don't the casualties tend to the elder demographic and those already weakened by a primary disease? Exactly the kinds who wouldn't fight in a war. Does this change some of my views on the possibility of upcoming catastrophes and reasons for certain events? No. This is Chess, and there are obvious moves in chess, hidden moves in chess, but the best moves involve peices which can be utilized in different ways if the board calls for it. Is all what it seems? No. I definitely changed a few previously held beliefs prior to today, and I would caution you in advance that you will find some previously held convictions challenged. After uncovering what I did today, I would also strongly suggest reading information cautiously. This is all merely a culmination of ending the cold war, and once I have events laid out, you will see it as well. At this moment, the end analysis is a war will start in the near future. This will be mainly for a few reasons, preemptive resource control for water and crops, population reduction can be achieved since we have too many people, not enough jobs, and upcoming resource scarcity. Did you notice my omission of rare earth elements? This is because of Afghanistan. I would wager China or Russia is somehow supporting the continued resistance through Iran. But events are now accelerating with China because the western collation has already begun to build up their mines and start production. Do you remember when Trump made a "joke" about buying Greenland? Yeah. It turns out that Greenland has one of the largest rare earth mineral deposits on the planet. Take care. Be safe. Stay aware and be prepared. This message not brought to you by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Elon Musk, Blackrock, Vangaurd, the Rockefeller Foundation, Rand Corporation, DARPA, Rothschilds, Agenda 21, Agenda 30, and ID 2020.
Hi Bitcoiners! I’m back with the 31st monthly Bitcoin news recap. For those unfamiliar, each day I pick out the most popularelevant/interesting stories in Bitcoin and save them. At the end of the month I release them in one batch, to give you a quick (but not necessarily the best) overview of what happened in bitcoin over the past month. You can see recaps of the previous months on Bitcoinsnippets.com A recap of Bitcoin in July 2019 Adoption
Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System — published on Oct. 31, 2008 — outlined a tamper-proof, decentralized peer-to-peer protocol that could track and verify digital transactions, prevent double-spending and generate a transparent record for anyone to inspect in nearly real-time. The protocol represented a cryptographically-secured system — based on a Proof-of-Work algorithm — in which Bitcoins (BTC) are “mined” for a reward by individual nodes and then verified by other nodes in a decentralized network. This system contained the possibility of overcoming the need for intermediaries such as banks and financial institutions to facilitate and audit transactions — a major disruption to a siloed, monopolized field of centralized financial power.
304033233% all-time-price appreciation
Eleven years on, Bitcoin is consistently setting new records for its network hash rate — a measure of the overall computing power involved in validating transactions on the blockchain at any given time. More power and participation establishes greater network security and attests to widespread recognition of the profitability potential of Bitcoin mining. As of the middle of this month, network data revealed that since the creation of the very first block on the Bitcoin blockchain on Jan 3, 2009 — known in more technical language as its “genesis block” — miners have received combined revenue of just under $15 billion. The figure includes both block rewards — “new” bitcoins paid to miners for validating a block of transactions — as well as transaction fees, which broke the $1 billion mark this week. Bitcoin’s first-ever recorded trading price was noted on Mar. 17, 2010 — on the now-defunct trading platform bitcoinmarket.com, at a value of $0.003. The cryptocurrency’s appreciation thus stands at a staggering 304033233% as of press time, with Bitcoin currently trading at $9,120. As of this August, 85% of Bitcoin’s supply in circulation had been mined — leaving just 3.15 million new coins for the future. Eleven years on, the mystery enshrouding the white paper’s author remains as impenetrable as ever. Those both within and without the crypto community began attempting to determine Nakamoto’s identity as early as October 2011, just a few months after the mysterious figure first went silent.
A Beginners Guide to Bitcoin, Blockchain & Cryptocurrency
As cryptocurrency, and blockchain technology become more abundant throughout our society, it’s important to understand the inner workings of this technology, especially if you plan to use cryptocurrency as an investment vehicle. If you’re new to the crypto-sphere, learning about Bitcoin makes it much easier to understand other cryptocurrencies as many other altcoins' technologies are borrowed directly from Bitcoin. Bitcoin is one of those things that you look into only to discover you have more questions than answers, and right as you’re starting to wrap your head around the technology; you discover the fact that Bitcoin has six other variants (forks), the amount of politics at hand, or that there are over a thousand different cryptocurrencies just as complex if not even more complex than Bitcoin. We are currently in the infancy of blockchain technology and the effects of this technology will be as profound as the internet. This isn’t something that’s just going to fade away into history as you may have been led to believe. I believe this is something that will become an integral part of our society, eventually embedded within our technology. If you’re a crypto-newbie, be glad that you're relatively early to the industry. I hope this post will put you on the fast-track to understanding Bitcoin, blockchain, and how a large percentage of cryptocurrencies work.
Altcoin: Short for alternative coin. There are over 1,000 different cryptocurrencies. You’re probably most familiar with Bitcoin. Anything that isn’t Bitcoin is generally referred to as an altcoin. HODL: Misspelling of hold. Dank meme accidentally started by this dude. Hodlers are much more interested in long term gains rather than playing the risky game of trying to time the market. TO THE MOON: When a cryptocurrency’s price rapidly increases. A major price spike of over 1,000% can look like it’s blasting off to the moon. Just be sure you’re wearing your seatbelt when it comes crashing down. FUD: Fear. Uncertainty. Doubt. FOMO: Fear of missing out. Bull Run: Financial term used to describe a rising market. Bear Run: Financial term used to describe a falling market.
What Is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin (BTC) is a decentralized digital currency that uses cryptography to secure and ensure validity of transactions within the network. Hence the term crypto-currency. Decentralization is a key aspect of Bitcoin. There is no CEO of Bitcoin or central authoritative government in control of the currency. The currency is ran and operated by the people, for the people. One of the main development teams behind Bitcoin is blockstream. Bitcoin is a product of blockchain technology. Blockchain is what allows for the security and decentralization of Bitcoin. To understand Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, you must understand to some degree, blockchain. This can get extremely technical the further down the rabbit hole you go, and because this is technically a beginners guide, I’m going to try and simplify to the best of my ability and provide resources for further technical reading.
A Brief History
Bitcoin was created by Satoshi Nakamoto. The identity of Nakamoto is unknown. The idea of Bitcoin was first introduced in 2008 when Nakamoto released the Bitcoin white paper - Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System. Later, in January 2009, Nakamoto announced the Bitcoin software and the Bitcoin network officially began. I should also mention that the smallest unit of a Bitcoin is called a Satoshi. 1 BTC = 100,000,000 Satoshis. When purchasing Bitcoin, you don’t actually need to purchase an entire coin. Bitcoin is divisible, so you can purchase any amount greater than 1 Satoshi (0.00000001 BTC).
What Is Blockchain?
Blockchain is a distributed ledger, a distributed collection of accounts. What is being accounted for depends on the use-case of the blockchain itself. In the case of Bitcoin, what is being accounted for is financial transactions. The first block in a blockchain is referred to as the genesis block. A block is an aggregate of data. Blocks are also discovered through a process known as mining (more on this later). Each block is cryptographically signed by the previous block in the chain and visualizing this would look something akin to a chain of blocks, hence the term, blockchain. For more information regarding blockchain I’ve provided more resouces below:
Bitcoin mining is one solution to the double spend problem. Bitcoin mining is how transactions are placed into blocks and added onto the blockchain. This is done to ensure proof of work, where computational power is staked in order to solve what is essentially a puzzle. If you solve the puzzle correctly, you are rewarded Bitcoin in the form of transaction fees, and the predetermined block reward. The Bitcoin given during a block reward is also the only way new Bitcoin can be introduced into the economy. With a halving event occurring roughly every 4 years, it is estimated that the last Bitcoin block will be mined in the year 2,140. (See What is Block Reward below for more info). Mining is one of those aspects of Bitcoin that can get extremely technical and more complicated the further down the rabbit hole you go. An entire website could be created (and many have) dedicated solely to information regarding Bitcoin mining. The small paragraph above is meant to briefly expose you to the function of mining and the role it plays within the ecosystem. It doesn’t even scratch the surface regarding the topic.
How do you Purchase Bitcoin?
The most popular way to purchase Bitcoin through is through an online exchange where you trade fiat (your national currency) for Bitcoin. Popular exchanges include:
There’s tons of different exchanges. Just make sure you find one that supports your national currency.
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are EXTREMELY volatile. Swings of 30% or more within a few days is not unheard of. Understand that there is always inherent risks with any investment. Cryptocurrencies especially. Only invest what you’re willing to lose.
Transaction & Network Fees
Transacting on the Bitcoin network is not free. Every purchase or transfer of Bitcoin will cost X amount of BTC depending on how congested the network is. These fees are given to miners as apart of the block reward. Late 2017 when Bitcoin got up to $20,000USD, the average network fee was ~$50. Currently, at the time of writing this, the average network fee is $1.46. This data is available in real-time on BitInfoCharts.
In this new era of money, there is no central bank or government you can go to in need of assistance. This means the responsibility of your money falls 100% into your hands. That being said, the security regarding your cryptocurrency should be impeccable. The anonymity provided by cryptocurrencies alone makes you a valuable target to hackers and scammers. Below I’ve detailed out best practices regarding securing your cryptocurrency.
Two-Factor Authentication (2FA)
Two-factor authentication is a second way of authenticating your identity upon signing in to an account. Most cryptocurrency related software/websites will offer or require some form of 2FA. Upon creation of any crypto-related account find the Security section and enable 2FA.
The most basic form of 2FA which you are probably most familiar with. This form of authentication sends a text message to your smartphone with a special code that will allow access to your account upon entry. Note that this is not the safest form of 2FA as you may still be vulnerable to what is known as a SIM swap attack. SIM swapping is a social engineering method in which an attacker will call up your phone carrier, impersonating you, in attempt to re-activate your SIM card on his/her device. Once the attacker has access to your SIM card he/she now has access to your text messages which can then be used to access your online accounts. You can prevent this by using an authenticator such as Google Authenticator.
The use of an authenticator is the safest form of 2FA. An authenticator is installed on a seperate device and enabling it requires you input an ever changing six digit code in order to access your account. I recommend using Google Authenticator. If a website has the option to enable an authenticator, it will give you a QR code and secret key. Use Google Authenticator to scan the QR code. The secret key consists of a random string of numbers and letters. Write this down on a seperate sheet of paper and do not store it on a digital device. Once Google Authenticator has been enabled, every time you sign into your account, you will have to input a six-digit code that looks similar to this. If you happen to lose or damage the device you have Google Authenticator installed on, you will be locked out of your account UNLESS you have access to the secret key (which you should have written down).
A wallet is what you store Bitcoin and cryptocurrency on. I’ll provide resources on the different type of wallets later but I want to emphasize the use of a hardware wallet (aka cold storage). Hardware wallets are the safest way of storing cryptocurrency because it allows for your crypto to be kept offline in a physical device. After purchasing crypto via an exchange, I recommend transferring it to cold storage. The most popular hardware wallets include the Ledger Nano S, and Trezor. Hardware wallets come with a special key so that if it gets lost or damaged, you can recover your crypto. I recommend keeping your recovery key as well as any other sensitive information in a safety deposit box. I know this all may seem a bit manic, but it is important you take the necessary security precautions in order to ensure the safety & longevity of your cryptocurrency.
Technical Aspects of Bitcoin
Address: What you send Bitcoin to.
Wallet: Where you store your Bitcoin
Max Supply: 21 million
Block Time: ~10 minutes
Block Size: 1-2 MB
Block Reward: BTC reward received from mining.
What is a Bitcoin Address?
A Bitcoin address is what you send Bitcoin to. If you want to receive Bitcoin you’d give someone your Bitcoin address. Think of a Bitcoin address as an email address for money.
What is a Bitcoin Wallet?
As the title implies, a Bitcoin wallet is anything that can store Bitcoin. There are many different types of wallets including paper wallets, software wallets and hardware wallets. It is generally advised NOT to keep cryptocurrency on an exchange, as exchanges are prone to hacks (see Mt. Gox hack). My preferred method of storing cryptocurrency is using a hardware wallet such as the Ledger Nano S or Trezor. These allow you to keep your crypto offline in physical form and as a result, much more safe from hacks. Paper wallets also allow for this but have less functionality in my opinion. After I make crypto purchases, I transfer it to my Ledger Nano S and keep that in a safe at home. Hardware wallets also come with a special key so that if it gets lost or damaged, you can recover your crypto. I recommend keeping your recovery key in a safety deposit box.
What is Bitcoins Max Supply?
The max supply of Bitcoin is 21 million. The only way new Bitcoins can be introduced into the economy are through block rewards which are given after successfully mining a block (more on this later).
What is Bitcoins Block Time?
The average time in which blocks are created is called block time. For Bitcoin, the block time is ~10 minutes, meaning, 10 minutes is the minimum amount of time it will take for a Bitcoin transaction to be processed. Note that transactions on the Bitcoin network can take much longer depending on how congested the network is. Having to wait a few hours or even a few days in some instances for a transaction to clear is not unheard of. Other cryptocurrencies will have different block times. For example, Ethereum has a block time of ~15 seconds. For more information on how block time works, Prabath Siriwardena has a good block post on this subject which can be found here.
What is Bitcoins Block Size?
There is a limit to how large blocks can be. In the early days of Bitcoin, the block size was 36MB, but in 2010 this was reduced to 1 MB in order to prevent distributed denial of service attacks (DDoS), spam, and other malicious use on the blockchain. Nowadays, blocks are routinely in excess of 1MB, with the largest to date being somewhere around 2.1 MB. There is much debate amongst the community on whether or not to increase Bitcoin’s block size limit to account for ever-increasing network demand. A larger block size would allow for more transactions to be processed. The con argument to this is that decentralization would be at risk as mining would become more centralized. As a result of this debate, on August 1, 2017, Bitcoin underwent a hard-fork and Bitcoin Cash was created which has a block size limit of 8 MB. Note that these are two completely different blockchains and sending Bitcoin to a Bitcoin Cash wallet (or vice versa) will result in a failed transaction. Update: As of May 15th, 2018 Bitcoin Cash underwent another hard fork and the block size has increased to 32 MB. On the topic of Bitcoin vs Bitcoin Cash and which cryptocurrency is better, I’ll let you do your own research and make that decision for yourself. It is good to know that this is a debated topic within the community and example of the politics that manifest within the space. Now if you see community members arguing about this topic, you’ll at least have a bit of background to the issue.
What is Block Reward?
Block reward is the BTC you receive after discovering a block. Blocks are discovered through a process called mining. The only way new BTC can be added to the economy is through block rewards and the block reward is halved every 210,000 blocks (approximately every 4 years). Halving events are done to limit the supply of Bitcoin. At the inception of Bitcoin, the block reward was 50BTC. At the time of writing this, the block reward is 12.5BTC. Halving events will continue to occur until the amount of new Bitcoin introduced into the economy becomes less than 1 Satoshi. This is expected to happen around the year 2,140. All 21 million Bitcoins will have been mined. Once all Bitcoins have been mined, the block reward will only consist of transaction fees.
Any computer that connects to the Bitcoin network is called a node. Nodes that fully verify all of the rules of Bitcoin are called full nodes.
In other words, full nodes are what verify the Bitcoin blockchain and they play a crucial role in maintaining the decentralized network. Full nodes store the entirety of the blockchain and validate transactions. Anyone can participate in the Bitcoin network and run a full node. Bitcoin.org has information on how to set up a full node. Running a full node also gives you wallet capabilities and the ability to query the blockchain. For more information on Bitcoin nodes, see Andreas Antonopoulos’s Q&A on the role of nodes.
What is a Fork?
A fork is a divergence in a blockchain. Since Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer network, there’s an overall set of rules (protocol) in which participants within the network must abide by. These rules are put in place to form network consensus. Forks occur when implementations must be made to the blockchain or if there is disagreement amongst the network on how consensus should be achieved.
Soft Fork vs Hard Fork
The difference between soft and hard forks lies in compatibility. Soft forks are backwards compatible, hard forks are not. Think of soft forks as software upgrades to the blockchain, whereas hard forks are a software upgrade that warrant a completely new blockchain. During a soft fork, miners and nodes upgrade their software to support new consensus rules. Nodes that do not upgrade will still accept the new blockchain. Examples of Bitcoin soft forks include:
A hard fork can be thought of as the creation of a new blockchain that X percentage of the community decides to migrate too. During a hard fork, miners and nodes upgrade their software to support new consensus rules, Nodes that do not upgrade are invalid and cannot accept the new blockchain. Examples of Bitcoin hard forks include:
Note that these are completely different blockchains and independent from the Bitcoin blockchain. If you try to send Bitcoin to one of these blockchains, the transaction will fail.
A Case For Bitcoin in a World of Centralization
Our current financial system is centralized, which means the ledger(s) that operate within this centralized system are subjugated to control, manipulation, fraud, and many other negative aspects that come with this system. There are also pros that come with a centralized system, such as the ability to swiftly make decisions. However, at some point, the cons outweigh the pros, and change is needed. What makes Bitcoin so special as opposed to our current financial system is that Bitcoin allows for the decentralized transfer of money. Not one person owns the Bitcoin network, everybody does. Not one person controls Bitcoin, everybody does. A decentralized system in theory removes much of the baggage that comes with a centralized system. Not to say the Bitcoin network doesn’t have its problems (wink wink it does), and there’s much debate amongst the community as to how to go about solving these issues. But even tiny steps are significant steps in the world of blockchain, and I believe Bitcoin will ultimately help to democratize our financial system, whether or not you believe it is here to stay for good.
Well that was a lot of words… Anyways I hope this guide was beneficial, especially to you crypto newbies out there. You may have come into this realm not expecting there to be an abundance of information to learn about. I know I didn’t. Bitcoin is only the tip of the iceberg, but now that you have a fundamental understanding of Bitcoin, learning about other cryptocurrencies such as Litecoin, and Ethereum will come more naturally. Feel free to ask questions below! I’m sure either the community or myself would be happy to answer your questions. Thanks for reading!
Still waiting on more volatility to confirm the range of the current "Insane Bull Channel." However, we're continuing our explosive break through the previous log channel. Despite my best wishes, it's no longer reasonable to put the "Insane Bull Channel" at 1.2% CDPR. _chewtoy_ got it right, again. I'm still holding back from the 1.5% - 2.0% CPDR that he called, but that can easily change in an instant. To illustrate exactly how insane the current growth rate is I added an extra row with a price target of one hundred million USD/BTC. I'm also adding a price chart that projects Local Bitcoins global USD volume growth based on the last year of performance. I'll release an update to that every week in a major moon math update like this. nannal 2020 isn't far from pushing up another few percentage points. I need to debug the nannal 's A+ column because it doesn't seem to be flipping at the right time. I'll keep you posted about any changes to that. Good hunting.
You're all a bunch of degenerate addicts... and I love you all. I started making this when the price was at 16k. Damnit, guys. Help a brother out? Just slow down a bit. Everthing in moon math is fucked up, because the price hasn't ever moved this much while I've been making the charts. The 12 old hour values for the price are ancient. So, we're getting some mixed reporting today. 2 Moon Math tables. 1 for today's price action... kinda. Another normal chart. Rainbow charts a little messed up. Live with it. We need a major moon math update tomorrow if we're going to be up here at the end of the day. Lots of changes are needed in the rainbow charts. Only a partial release of those. Dat Nannaling, though...
The 3 Kinds of Cryptocurrency Traders that are Kicking Your Ass
The 3 Types of Cryptocurrency Traders that are Kicking Your Ass
For an investor to outperform the market, someone else must underperform.That is a simple arithmetic fact. In a fair and regulated environment, investors have equal access to information. Winners and losers are determined by whoever can make a better prediction. But cryptocurrency is the wild, wild west. Market participants don’t play fair and they can profit at the expense of others. Here are the three types of traders that are kicking your ass Insider Traders Under Rule 10b5–1, the SEC defines insider trading as “any securities transaction made when the person behind the trade is aware of nonpublic material information.” Insider trading is illegal in almost all traditional markets. In a research paper published in 2010, Qin Lei found empirical evidence that insiders were able to consistently beat the stock market. Over the last year, we’ve seen many high-profile cases of insider trading in the cryptocurrency market. Coinbase** — The Bitcoin Cash Incident** On December 19, 2017, Coinbase tweeted it would add Bitcoin Cash to its exchange. But before the announcement was made public, both the trading volume and the price of Bitcoin Cash suspiciously surged. On March 1, Coinbase was hit with a class action lawsuit. The full court document is available here. South Korea Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) Even regulators are being investigated for insider trading. Korean FSS officials knew ahead of time that new cryptocurrency trading restrictions would be put in place. Yet, they still made trades before the announcement. The chief of the FSS, Choi Hyung-sik, confirmed on Jan. 18 that trading violations had occurred. Despite being caught red-handed, another FSS official responded that there was technically “no code of ethics or conduct for virtual currencies and therefore difficult to issue any punishment.” The examples mentioned above are just a few high-profile cases. Insider trading runs rampant in the cryptocurrency space. Very often, prices and trading volumes will pump right before an exchange announces a new coin. To many, insider trading is no longer a surprise but rather something that “just happens” in an unregulated market. Whales A whale is simply a colloquial way to describe an investor who is able to manipulate markets by mobilizing large amounts of capital. Most crypto investors treat whales like the boogeyman. They’ve never had a personal encounter, but swear that whales are responsible for large market swings everywhere. In some cases there is strong evidence indicating that they are right. Recently, academic research has come out showing that large-scale price manipulation does happen. Here’s an example from 2013, where a single entity was largely responsible for pushing the price of Bitcoin from $150 to $1,000 in two months. Another paper that came out last week shows how large amounts of USDT was used to manipulate Bitcoin prices. Here are a few techniques whales use to manipulate price. Stop-loss hunting Whales intentionally push the price down in order to trigger stop-loss orders.Then they turn around and buy coins from these stop-loss orders for cheap and wait for the market to recover. This strategy works well for coins with low trading volumes and small order books. With enough coins, whales can push down the price by introducing a slew of market-price sell orders. To show how this works, let’s imagine a scenario:
There is a coin trading at $150
There are 10 BTC of buy orders between $110 and $150
There are 10 BTC of buy orders between $90 and $110
The goal is to drive the price down past $100, which may be a psychological breaking point for some people and therefore a likely place for stop-losses. One can do this by:
Placing a market sell order totaling 10 BTC, to drive the price down from $150 to $110
Keeping the sell pressure on, as investors naturally start selling their holdings.
Watching people’s stop-losses go off at $100 without their knowledge. This drives the price down further.
Buying up all the stop-loss orders at $90 and under.
Waiting for the market to recover before selling the coins.
Short/Long Hunting This is another form of market manipulation, but one that only exchanges can pull off. Let’s see how this works on Bitmex for BTC.
A trader puts up $100 as margin for a 100x leveraged long position of $10,000.
The bankruptcy price is set at $9,900 which is the market price minus the margin.
However, Bitmex forces a liquidation if the price falls to $9,950, just $50 (0.5%) from the initial entry price.
When the market price reaches the liquidation price, Bitmex forces a sell at the bankruptcy price ($9,900).
At liquidation, investors lose their entire margin and pay the high fee at the 100x leveraged rate.
The price just has move slightly in the wrong direction to trigger a liquidation. When liquidations happen, the investor loses their entire margin and pays a big fat fee. Because exchanges know exactly what prices will trigger these liquidations, they have both the capability and financial incentive to engineer price movements using bots. To be clear, there is no evidence implicating Bitmex. But it is suspicious that low volume trading periods are followed by a furious uptick in volume. When this happens, liquidation tears through leveraged positions, leaving traders with nothing other than a fistful of trading fees. BitmexRekt tweets these liquidations in real time. You can follow them here. Spoofing Another common strategy whales use to manipulate the market is called spoofing. It means to bid or offer with intent to cancel before the orders are filled.The goal of spoofing is to send false signals to investors. Here’s an example of using this strategy to profit:
A spoofer places a large buy order right underneath a smaller buy order with the intention of sending a bullish signal to the market.
After filling a few trades, poof, the spoofer cancels the entire buy order.
When the price starts to rise, the spoofer starts to sell his coins.
Manipulate prices on markets with small order books
Usually wash trading is extremely hard to prove, as washed trades look very similar to real trades. On July 27, however, Bitfinex unknowingly baited wash traders during the Bitcoin (BTC) fork to Bitcoin Cash (BCH). At the time of the fork, all BTC holders were to receive BCH commensurate with the amount of BTC they held. To accommodate for BTC held in margin positions at the time, Bitfinex had to finesse the numbers. To quote the announcement:
BCH will be distributed to settled bitcoin wallet balances as of the UTC timestamp of the first forking block, which is expected to occur on August 1st, 2017. The token distribution methodology will be:
All BTC wallet balances will receive BCH
Margin longs in BTC/USD and margin shorts in XXX/BTC will not receive BCH
Margin shorts in BTC/USD and margin longs in XXX/BTC will not pay BCH
BTC Lenders will receive BCH
Due to the net amount of BTC committed in margin positions at the time of the fork, the above methodology may result in Bitfinex seeing a surplus or deficit of BCH. As such, we will be resolving this discrepancy in the form of a socialized distribution coefficient. For example, currently, there are more longs than shorts on the platform, causing a distribution coefficient of ~1.091 (Meaning that for each qualifying BTC a user will receive 1.091 BCH). The actual coefficient will be calculated at the moment of the distribution.
These rules turned out to be game-able. Because Bitfinex did not charge BCH to open short positions leading up to the split, one could simply purchase 10 BTC and short 10 BTC. This way, you could collect free BCH without any exposure to BTC price volatility. If BTC drops, the shorts cancel out any loss. If BTC soars, the profits cancel out the short positions. On July 27, there were more longs than shorts on the platform and the distribution coefficient was 1.091. However, on August 1, the distribution coefficient moved to 0.7757. Leading up to the fork, an enormous amount of short positions were created. And instead of prices going down, which is what usually happens when shorts increase so dramatically, prices actually went up. To make matters even more dubious, shorts dropped by 24,000 on a single tick right after the fork. The manipulation here was so obvious that even Bitfinex had to acknowledge it. They issued an official statement about the wash trading here. Pump & Dump Group Executives So we’ve talked about insider traders and whales. The final type of traders we’re going to talk about are the pump & dump group executives. Pump & dump (P&D) is a form of market manipulation that involves purchasing a cheap asset, artificially inflating its price, and then dumping the asset a higher price. The cryptocurrency market is rife with such groups. Here are just a few:
Big Pump Signal (82,184 members)
VIP Signal Strategy (24,138 members)
PumpKing Community (11,124 members)
Crypto4Pumps (13,954 members)
AltTheWay (8,350 members)
Here’s howPump & Dumps work
P&D executives find a coin that is easy to manipulate and easy to sell. I.e. A coin with a strong community, advertising potential, small order book, and low trading volume.
Executives secretly accumulate the coin over time while trying not to affect the price.
These executives spread their pump signals to their inner circle members who pay upwards of $300 for the privilege of hearing early signals.
The first wave of pumpers start shilling on signal groups. They tell gullible investors that a pump is about to happen because of “new website updates”, or “new partnership announcements”, generally whatever angle they can spin.
As the price rises, the P&D executives start dumping their coins.
Once the executives are spent, they spread the signal to their paid members to begin dumping the coin.
The price starts falling and like a game of soggy cookie, the slowest players lose.
So you’re telling me the game is rigged and I’m boned, what should I do?
The simple answer is to stop actively trading.The more you try to time the market, the more you open yourself up to opportunities of getting screwed over. Speculative trading is a zero-sum game. In order for investors to outperform the market, they require others to underperform the market. In an unfair market, the average investor will more likely lose to people who have an unfair advantage and are gaming the market. This is why I genuinely believe the average investor should just index the entire market. If you’re in it for the technology and the long-term growth, why bother speculating at all? Just hold a small piece of the entire cryptocurrency market. Indices has been proven to beat 95% professional traders in equity markets over a 15 year-period. This is why I built HodlBot. It’s an easy way to diversify across the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market cap. It indexes 87% of the entire cryptocurrency market. Every week, your portfolio automatically rebalance so you’re always tracking the top 20 coins. It helps you get some quiet sleep while active traders lie awake, staring at their phones. You can read more about it here. The best thing about a total market index is that it can guarantee market performance. Active trading, on the other hand, cannot. I don’t mean to spread FUD by pointing out all the different ways traders are ripping investors off. I just want investors to know what exactly free and unregulated markets really mean. We’re not protected by the SEC or any other sanctioning bodies. While this comes with unbridled freedom and breathing room for rapid innovation, it also means all foul play is fair play. It’s a brave new world out there filled with all kinds of splendor and danger. If you’re going to take your chances, please make sure you’re prepared.
Several changes today, aside from the financial changes of consecutive ATH days. Reddit is giving me more columns now, so I'm using them. Moon Math goes all the way back to July 2011. If we can agree on a price for January 1st, 2011, then I'll adjust to that. I'm adjusting how the trends are determined in Azop's charts. The full rainbow trend will be updated daily to track with the 2012 CDPR. The 2017 trend will be drawn based on the 2017 CDPR. It's a subtle change, but you'd notice if you followed azop closely. He would adjust these rates periodically, too. I had them fixed at the values of his last post until today. nannal 2020 and The Nannaling will now be calculated against all 11 columns. So, it's going to be a lot harder to score a 50%. As if it wasn't hard enough.
Can Litecoin Halving Really Double Your Investment?
Two big halvings in less than a year. The next Bitcoin halving is less than a year away, and Litecoin’s block rewards are expected to fall within two months. These events are likely to restrict the supply of both cryptocurrencies, leading some speculators to count on the reduced supply for another bull run. In fact, given the recent run-up in price to a 12-month high of $128 at the time of writing, Litecoin halving fever already seems to have struck the market. But, as we’ll see, those returns may not be as inevitable as some traders think. Why Do Mining Rewards Fall? The rate that new coins are created is cut in half every four years, effectively reducing inflation rates and cutting supply in the digital currency. Bitcoin’s current inflation rate is just over 4%, and will become 1.8% after the halving. In comparison, the U.S. Federal Reserve targets a 2% inflation rate each year. Bitcoin inflation rate versus price over time. Via CoinMarketCap Bitcoin has followed the same emission schedule since the genesis block, except for one slip-up: an inflation bug (CVE-2010-5139) created 184 billion bitcoins on August 15, 2010 at block height 74638. Bitcoin supply curve. Source: messario.io What will happen to the price of Bitcoin? It’s risky to use previous halvings to draw a conclusion for the future, because it’s such a small sample size. However, we do know that inflation (and therefore supply) will decrease. ECON101 tells us that a supply decrease coupled with stagnant demand leads to a price increase, and we’ve predicted positive results for the halving before. On the day of the first halving, November 28, 2012, the price of BTC was $12.35, and reached $127 just 150 days later. One year after the halving it was $205. 150 days prior to the halving the price was $5.24. Bitcoin at the first halving. Via BuyBitcoinWorldwide. So, the first halving was clearly a good time to buy BTC. If you had bought five months before the halving and sold it one year afterwards, your investment would have returned forty-fold returns. The second halving was less dramatic, but still profitable. On July 9th, the day of the 2016 halving, the price of BTC was $650.63 and reached $758.81 just 150 days later. One year after the halving it was $2350. 150 days prior to the halving the price was $405. So, during that halving there was nearly a sixfold investment opportunity. Bitcoin at the second halving. Via BuyBitcoinWorldwide. Again, the sample size is small, but the relationship is clear – buying before the halving and holding for a long time afterwards has been very profitable. What About Litecoin? The impending Bitcoin halving has been well covered, but what does this mean for Litecoin – the silver to Bitcoin’s gold? Litecoin was launched as a fork of Bitcoin, which would be “four times as fast with four times the supply.” Litecoin, like Bitcoin, still halves every four years. But its halving schedule has seemingly slipped under the radar. To date, Litecoin has only had one halving, which was on August 26th, 2015, and the next halving is only two months away. This time the sample size is even smaller, since this event has only happened once in history. But the results are interesting given that they don’t really mimic Bitcoin’s. The best metric to use on Litecoin is its price relative to BTC. On the day of the halving LTC was worth 0.01272 BTC. 150 days later the price actually decreased by 35% to 0.008189 BTC. One year after the halving the price was nearly 50% lower at 0.006595 BTC. Looking at the graph below, it’s clear that the price of LTC peaked approximately 6 weeks prior to the halving, as if traders anticipated similar results to the Bitcoin halving but were disappointed. Litecoin price at 2015 halving In the last halving, purchasing 8 weeks prior to the halving would have returned less than a 5% profit to the date of the halving. As of June 6th, we are exactly 8 weeks away from the LTC halving date, but this one may not be easy money. Based on an (admittedly tiny) sample size, history shows that LTC is unlikely to hold its run against Bitcoin.
Futures trading is happening now, I guess. What a joke. Here's Cramer being wrong, again. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/08/cramer-there-could-be-more-shenanigans-after-bitcoin-futures-start-trading.html Futures markets will not "kibosh" Bitcoin volatility until there's an actual asset that's traded behind the contract. Skin isn't in the game in those markets, yet. To impact trading you need to have a mechanism that directly includes you in the market. Review evandaniel 's post history for a tempered view of futures. My view is that what we're seeing is the first best move of the establishment to fight cooperatively against what they're starting consider a real and present danger. Apparently, they're divided and uncertain about being corralled into an ideological dispute and universally unwilling to put their money where their mouth is.
If futures markets were supposed to introduce stability to Bitcoin, they're failing terribly. All measures of stability have decayed to their lowest observed levels in some time. http://bitcoinstability.github.io/bitcoinstability/#/stability Volume in those markets are low, and it doesn't appear to be gaining traction. If Wall Street wants to play in these waters it will need to do more than gamble on the price. They need to get skin in the game. When, not if, that happens it's going to make the last 12 months look like a vacation cruise. The first rainbow chart has become so steep that I needed to move the position of the entire rainbow down. I'll eventually find a better way to anchor that against the price. For now, I'm just trying to keep as much of the lower extremes in the rainbow as possible. The change has pushed the price action solidly into the dark orange section of the rainbow. I may need to start posting two versions of that chart. This one has heavily deviated from azop 's creation, which many people use as a stable way to review and compare price performance. I've removed the Bull Trend charts because they've effectively become identical to the 2017 trend. However, the bands on the 2017 chart have been adjusted to match the bands on the former bull trend chart. Basically, those two charts have been fully merged. When I started making the 2017 chart the CDPR was 0.60%. That's how far we've moved the price. It only took a couple months to dwarf the performance of an already stellar year. The Insane Bull Run rate has been dropped from 1.4% to 1.25% and the bands have been tightened. This seems to better frame the price performance we've seen. I think we've narrowly avoided the near-term disaster scenario of sustained performance over 1.5%. _chewtoy_ can sigh a sigh of relief. 1.2% is still nuts, but we have and can continue to press on at this rate for months at a time.
There's a new 7-day performance column today. That's going to fluctuate wildly. The results of that column are being included in the nannal calculations. The new column should make higher nannal percentages even harder to achieve. Today vs yesterday is a good example of that. Yesterday the rates of the 7-day performance column were basically identical to the results of the 30-day column. Today, it's showing basically sideways movement. Why is that? The closing prices we're using today came in before the price action we're seeing, and we went sideways for a week. This week seems to be behaving surprisingly like last week; as if last week was a test run for what we expect to see this week. I'm not sure how much stock I put in repeating weekly fractal patterns, but it has become self-evident that ilovebeans23 fucks: https://www.reddit.com/BitcoinMarkets/comments/7jgnty/daily_discussion_wednesday_december_13_2017/dr7dcuq I'm adding a regular blurb to the bottom of the moon math table because a number of people keep asking if they should buy bitcoin based on the Moon Math table or Azop's charts. The answer is no, you should not. You should learn to hunt. Then you should learn to avoid being hunted. Good hunting.
WARNING: Using Moon Math as a forecasting method is VERY dangerous and VERY tempting. I see no reason why we should expect to see past performance continue indefinitely. Don't make conclusion based entirely on what you see on some random post on reddit. It doesn’t matter how compelling you might find this, it's one lens among many. If this isn't already obvious to you, for the love of GOD, start learning what critical thinking is. Also, yes, a website is coming someday. http://moonmath.win
Go to http://moonmath.win for the full update and rainbow charts Taking a different approach today. I Published the Moon Math rant on tradingview with the analysis you see below. Today's wild speculation needs visual assistance to make much sense, and Trading View seemed the most practical way to communicate these ideas in a way that allows you all to call bullshit on me in a month or two. Trading View: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/HU1Vsylx-The-last-great-bubble/
Bitcoin is in a period of consolidation at the bottom of the long-term channel. Movement will seem sideways and down until indicators signal the next wave of adoption. Sentiment will remain low.
A : Medium-term consolidation
Resistance to growth remains through February and part of March while bearish and moderate performance causes increased price stability. Two descending wedges are broken before bullish sentiment can return.
B : New ATH sometime between May and July 2018
Two descending wedges are broken--drawn from the 2017 ATH and the January 2018 breakdown—and moderate to bullish sentiment pushes bitcoin to a new ATH. ATH is established somewhere between 20K and 28K USD. A new wave of adoption from new markets is identified. Full capitulation from alt market speculation exposes frivolous Crypto Assets. The ascending wedge between the 2017 and 2013 ATH is difficult to break. It’s EXTREMELY LIKELY that following scenarios take an additional 10 months. Price targets for an extended scenario are substantially higher.
C : Price is pushed over 50k sometime between June and August or as late as November 2018
Bitcoin's user base rapidly grows. It’s fueled by new growth and a new wave of users. Segwit and Lightning adoption demonstrate 100x increase in possible transaction support while significantly decreasing transaction fees. LocalBitcoin processes 20 to 40 million USD in transactions daily. Press praises Bitcoin as a tool ready or nearly ready for “Main Street.” A use case for Lightning in retail businesses is implemented in some markets.
D : Bounce off the top of the channel between July and October, or as late as March 2019
The speculative fever lasts and Bitcoin hits the top of the long-term channel for the first time since November 2015. The new ATH is somewhere between 90k and 200kUSD. The extended scenario sets a price target of 500k USD. Hitting the top of the channel signals a long-term bear market and moves the price into a comparatively moderate range, well under 100K USD. Bouncing off the top of the channel completes before speculation about the halving takes hold of sentiment in early 2020. By the end of 2020, 1 million USD price targets are commonly issued from established financial institutions in the United States. Good hunting
Build your position through periods of consolidation
Markets that are oversold are markets that quickly correct
Futures trading is happening now, I guess. What a joke. Here's Cramer being wrong, again. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/08/cramer-there-could-be-more-shenanigans-after-bitcoin-futures-start-trading.html Futures markets will not "kibosh" Bitcoin volatility until there's an actual asset that's traded behind the contract. Skin isn't in the game in those markets, yet. To impact trading you need to have a mechanism that includes you in the market. Review evandaniel 's post history for a tempered view of futures. My view is that what we're seeing is the first best move of the establishment to fight cooperatively against what they're starting consider a real and present danger. Apparently, they're divided and uncertain about being corralled into an ideological dispute and universally unwilling to put their money where their mouth is.
Today's update includes the LocalBitcoins USD Volume table. Volume there has been outperforming Moon Math pretty consistently, too. It makes sense to eventually start tracking the volume of all the various exchanges using this reflective measure of performance. You can apply the aproach to many different data sources. Total Exchange volume is an obvious usecase that I haven't followed through on. LocalBitcoins illustrates a different market, though. I made a lot of good progress on the Moon Math website this weekend. The table and layout are completely done and will automatically update. Even the price targets will automatically update. Rainbow Charts will require a fair amount more work to get fully rendered with d3. Probably done with all of that this week or next. Getting the bands of the rainbow to adjust autmatically based on the data that's passed in will probably prove difficult. Other than that we're getting close to an initial release in December. Fuck spreadsheets, BTW. The Moon Math table renders instantly with Python. Excel almost chokes before it spits it out.
Azop's Rainbow Charts
Rainbow charts show the current price. Normally I wouldn't do that.
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